Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
